In a much-remarked-on recent column — “The case for Trump — by someone who wants him to lose” — Bret Stephens of The New York Times gave U.S. Democrats a wake-up call: “You can’t defeat an opponent if you refuse to understand what makes him formidable.” Let me provide the same wake-up call to Canadian Liberals about Pierre Poilievre — with the important difference that I want Poilievre to win.

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Joe Oliver: Liberals underestimate Pierre Poilievre at their peril Back to video

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Stephens lists a number of problems that make the U.S. susceptible to Trump’s unconventional and disruptive politics, despite reservations about his personality and character. Illegal immigration. Blue-collar pessimism. Declining trust in key institutions, including the media, academia, the health bureaucracy, the justice system and even the FBI. Government incompetence and hyper-partisanship.

Some of these issues are unique to the U.S. while others resonate in Canada. But Stephens’ central message applies to any political contest: refusing to recognize an opponent’s strengths increases his chance of winning. Liberals be warned: As the polls have been suggesting in recent months, relentless partisan attacks on Pierre Poilievre’s personality and character are not catching on. They are contradicted by the facts and by the public’s direct observations, un-intermediated by legacy media.

Pro-choice and pro-gay marriage, Poilievre is a family man with two young children and a bright, personable wife. Many Canadians feel he genuinely cares about their personal struggles. He is highly articulate, fast on his feet and has a detailed understanding of complex issues. He is an unabashed patriot who passionately supports Canadian values and wants Canada to be economically prosperous and re-assume its constructive role in world affairs. His principled and common-sense policies aim to bring people together based on their common humanity. He is no fan of woke elitists, whether here or in Davos, whose intolerant ideology divides Canadians, belittles their history and denigrates their accomplishments and traditions.

The oft-repeated charge that Poilievre is hyper-partisan and has sharp elbows is undercut by Justin Trudeau’s own combative partisanship, highlighting the Liberal double standard. The role of the loyal opposition is to oppose. As with Trump, people appreciate a fighter in their corner.

Canadians understand the world is more dangerous than it was and that being a free rider on the U.S. for our national defence compromises our independence. They worry that a neglected military cannot protect our sovereignty in the Arctic and our citizens abroad. They would likely be appalled by the Canadian Military Journal’s description of our armed forces as founded on white supremacy, colonialism and patriarchy. They want Canada to be respected internationally and are embarrassed when our prime minister is viewed as a showboat and an irritating lightweight scold.

Canadians may not know the details of the recent decline in our per capita GDP but they are acutely aware when their personal income cannot not keep up with higher prices, especially for food, heating, gasoline and housing. They may not be aware that combined federal and provincial debt is approaching $2.2 trillion, exceeds 76 per cent of Canada’s economy and created $82 billion in interest obligations this year. But they are irritated when federal programs signal incompetence rather than service and are alarmed when timely public health care is so difficult to access and worry about rising violent crime. They support immigration but don’t need bankers or economists to tell them that when newcomers’ numbers exceed one million the housing crisis gets worse.

Canadians do not appreciate being told they are bigots by a prime minister who has declared that Canada is systemically racist and committed genocide against Indigenous people. They want a leader with a moral compass, not an equivocating politician who counts votes and plays both sides of the Gaza war by sending out MPs with different messages to different communities. The government’s vote against Israel in the UN and its slippery statement regarding the outrageous case in the International Court of Justice accusing Israel, not Hamas, of genocide will live in shame with other instances of betrayal and political cowardice.

Canadians care about the environment and climate change but they resent never- ending taxes hikes and intrusive regulations. Many are aware that Canada never met a target it set and cannot make a difference to global temperatures, that other countries are not doing their share and that cabinet ministers hypocritically exempt themselves from behaviour they prescribe for everyone else.

As the election nears and many Liberals finally do face up to Pierre Poilievre’s strengths they will have several alternatives to consider: push out their failing leader (challenging, but possible); fundamentally shift his focus (not credible even if it were achievable); or save the furniture (doable but painful for Trudeau, requiring him to axe the carbon tax, constrain spending, scale back emissions caps, reduce immigration, restore funding to the military, forgo opulent foreign vacations, fire Steven Guilbeault, and the list goes on).

Liberals who believe their party has abandoned them in its gallop to socialism may feel more comfortable moving to the Conservative Party. Pierre Poilievre, the leader the Liberals underestimate, will gladly welcome them into the Big Blue Tent.

Joe Oliver was first minister of natural resources then minister of finance in the Harper government.

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