Reversing climate change has defined the Trudeau government, generating the incessant virtue signalling and innumerable intrusive initiatives for which, after eight years, it is infamous. But now the entire climate project is staggering from a trifecta of reality checks — missed emission targets, public blowback against the carbon tax and, at long last, growing realization that nothing Canada does will change global temperatures.

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Joe Oliver: The Trudeau climate plan runs into reality Back to video

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In a withering report earlier this month, the federal environment and sustainable development commissioner said he was “extremely concerned about the federal government’s ability to achieve meaningful progress” toward its 2030 emissions goals. Not only won’t it reach its targets, it won’t materially move the dial. In fact, only twice in recent decades did emissions decline significantly — during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic — though for reasons unrelated to government policy or actions. Weaknesses in Canada’s economic modelling, the commissioner wrote, have included “overly optimistic assumptions, limited analysis of uncertainties, and lack of peer review.” And there’s more. The net-zero plan “did not include a target or expected emission reductions for 95 per cent of its measures” while federal organizations “expected only 43 per cent … to have some direct impact on emissions.” So: the government does not know what it is doing, is not measuring progress and isn’t going to meet its statutory obligation and political commitment. Ouch!

To all but the committed, it has been obvious for some time that the government’s chances of reaching its net-zero targets by 2040 and 2050 were remote. And yet the attempt could cost trillions of dollars and hit ordinary Canadians hard, especially the most disadvantaged. The silver lining in this failure of the government’s signature policy program is that success would have been even more costly —although the government can hardly take credit for incompetence. 

According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, 85 per cent of businesses oppose the federal carbon tax and want it removed, up by a third from last year. In a stunning reversal, the prime minister bent to the political winds, increased rural carbon tax rebates and suspended the tax itself on home heating oil for three years, a measure that favours the Atlantic provinces. The about-turn undermined both the rationale for the tax and the government’s commitment to it, outraged many non-Atlantic Liberal MPs and all environmental activists and galvanized other provinces to demand comparable treatment. 

Though he would not confirm them, there were rumours Steven Guilbeault, minister for environment and climate change, had threatened to resign if more carbon tax exemptions were granted — not that the departure of an eco-radical and “proud socialist” unrepresentative of the values or interests of ordinary Canadians would be widely mourned. But even rumoured threats of resignation have been rare under a prime minister notoriously intolerant of dissent from his caucus. Could the Liberals’ devastating poll numbers — according to 338Canada, they have less than a one per cent chance of winning the next election — be causing him to lose control of his cabinet?

For all the pain and divisiveness they have brought, Canada’s climate policies, even if they achieved their net-zero fantasy, would have only a minuscule impact on global temperatures. The much maligned oil sands, which represent 97 per cent of Canada’s proven oil reserves, only constitute one one-thousandth of global emissions. Their share of manmade GHG emissions is one part in 25,000. When the prime minister claims that Canadian emissions are contributing to extreme weather events, like forest fires here, he is simply making it up. On that point, even the UN’s International Panel on Climate Change agrees.

Other rich economies that had been vocal advocates for costly green policies are backing off in response to a blowback from voters struggling to cope with stagnant incomes and high inflation. And the other two-thirds of the world is unapologetically using the most affordable energy available, irrespective of its carbon footprint. China is building the equivalent of two coal plants a week, with six times as many plants starting construction as the rest of the world. India plans to increase coal production by 60 per cent by 2030. South Africa relies on coal for 69 per cent of its primary energy consumption.

That the emperor is buck naked is evident to all but the wilfully blind. Even they privately concede the political climate has become extremely chilly for anyone attired in a green birthday suit. But fighting a supposed climate apocalypse is so central to Justin Trudeau’s mission he cannot back off. It will be up to a successor to bring common sense and reality back to Canadian policy.

Joe Oliver was minister of natural resources and minister of finance in the Harper government.

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