Keith Richards, president and chief portfolio manager, ValueTrend Wealth Management

FOCUS: Technical Analysis

MARKET OUTLOOK:

As trend followers, we don’t predict. We simply follow our rules. Those rules incorporate trend confirmation and breakdown signals, along with breadth and sentiment signals. Case in point, we noted warning signals coming into early 2022, followed by a “high risk” signal on April 3. We raised 40 per cent cash at that time and rotated to low beta sectors. This afforded us positive Equity Platform performance throughout 2022 despite a down tape.

Our mid-term (three months to one year) trend model continues to mandate us to retain 30 per cent cash in the ValueTrend Equity Platform. Near-term signals (less than three months) suggest a probable move to around SPX 4,300, possibly in the coming weeks. In order for us to reduce our cash weightings (also known as a bull market confirmation), we require a move above the 200-day moving average and a breakthrough of 4,300. Such a bullish breakout may be hampered in the mid-term (three months to one year) by historic bear market patterns (suggesting we could have another leg down). That and the lack of traditional bear market capitulation signals when the SPX hit its lows on Oct. 13. Again, we don’t predict. We simply follow our rules!

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