Markets today: European bonds fall on supply concerns
European bonds fell after a report that Germany will suspend debt limits for a fourth consecutive year, adding to concerns over more borrowing as the euro-area economy slows.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government was forced into a radical budget overhaul by a ruling last week from Germany’s top court, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Yields on German 10-year debt climbed as much as six basis points, while yields on other core European bonds also rose after hawkish comments by policy makers.
Belgian central bank Governor Pierre Wunsch said on Thursday the European Central Bank won’t cut rates while wage growth remained elevated, while his German counterpart Joachim Nagel said it would be a mistake to loosen too early. Meanwhile, an account of the ECB’s last policy meeting showed officials agreed they should raise borrowing costs again if needed.
Earlier, data showed S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index was in contraction again in November, hitting 47.1. While that’s a bigger uptick than anticipated by economists, it marks the sixth consecutive month below the 50 level that indicates expansion. European stocks struggled for traction, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index edging about 0.2 per cent higher.
“It is still too early to become constructive on the euro and eurozone economy, which is now likely experiencing a shallower recession and not the beginning of a period of re-acceleration,” said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.
Dutch firms were among the biggest decliners in the benchmark after far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders won a shock victory in the country’s elections. Wilders has promised voters a binding referendum on leaving the European Union. Lender ING Groep NV fell as much as 3 per cent in Amsterdam, while chipmaker ASML Holding NV shed 1 per cent.
Among other individual movers, Virgin Money U.K. Plc fell as much as 4.4 per cent after the UK bank’s results missed estimates due to higher impairments and costs. Endesa SA dropped more than 3 per cent after the Spanish utility unveiled a strategic plan that failed to impress analysts.
Swedish stocks jumped and the krona weakened after the country’s central bank in a surprise move decided to leave its main benchmark rate unchanged at 4 per cent. Analysts had expected an increase to 4.25 per cent.
Peter van der Welle, a multi-asset strategist at Robeco Institutional Asset Management, said he remains cautious about the outlook for stocks in 2024 as he expects pressure on corporate earnings amid slowing economic growth. “While credit has not been fully pricing a mild recession, we find the asset class attractive relative to equities.”
U.S. equity futures were little changed. There is no Treasury cash trading on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday, while Japanese markets are also closed.
OPEC+ DISCORD
In commodity markets, crude oil extended a decline as discord within OPEC+ forced the group to delay an upcoming meeting, quelling speculation of further production cuts by the Saudi-led alliance. Brent crude sank below US$81 a barrel after a volatile session on Wednesday that saw prices swing by more than $4, while West Texas Intermediate was below $76.
“On the macro economic data, I don’t see enough positive signals to give me the confidence of a booming market next year,” Carol Nakhle, Chief Executive Officer of Crystol Energy, said on Bloomberg Television. “Even with oil demand forecast, we see today a big difference between what the International Energy Agency is expecting for 2024 and what OPEC is expecting.”
Iron ore tumbled from from a nine-month high after Chinese authorities stepped up a campaign to try and cool the rally in the steelmaking ingredient. Bloomberg’s industrial metals subindex dropped by the most in two months as prices of nickel, copper and aluminum also retreated.
In Asia, Country Garden Holdings Co.’s shares and bonds surged in Hong Kong following news that Beijing included the builder in a draft list of 50 developers eligible for financial support, the latest move to plug an estimated $446 billion gap in funding needed to ease the housing crisis. A gauge of property stocks rallied 7 per cent, set for its best week since early September.
Key events this week:
- Thanksgiving holiday — U.S. markets closed — Thursday
- Germany IFO business climate, Friday
- U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday
- Black Friday, traditional kick-off for the U.S. holiday shopping season
- ECB’s Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3 per cent as of 2:44 p.m. London time
- S&P 500 futures were little changed
- Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 per cent
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.4 per cent
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.0895
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.53 per dollar
- The offshore yuan rose 0.1 per cent to 7.1522 per dollar
- The British pound rose 0.3 per cent to $1.2529
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 1 per cent to $37,233.18
- Ether fell 1 per cent to $2,060.85
Bonds
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.61 per cent
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.24 per cent
Commodities
- Brent crude fell 1.7 per cent to $80.57 a barrel
- Spot gold rose 0.2 per cent to $1,993.58 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.