Seasonality trends show equities could dip toward the end of February: analyst
One investment professional says that although equity markets have broadly done well in recent weeks, historical trends show momentum could slow later this month.
Brooke Thackray, a research analyst at Horizons ETF Management Canada, says that based on seasonality trends, February is one of the weaker months of the year for stock market performance. He says that January is typically categorized by strength in markets followed by a pullback in February.
“It tends to be weaker, where there's a little bit of digestion taking place in the market. From that perspective, it would not be surprising to see the market, given how overbought it is, to pull back,” he said.
According to Thackray, much of the relatively strong performance in the first half of the month has happened due to growth stocks and anticipation surrounding upcoming Nvidia earnings, scheduled to take place on Feb. 21.
“But once we get past that…it tends to be a little bit weaker in this time period. It hasn't happened yet, we could see that at the tail end of this month,” he said.
Last week, the S&P 500 Index surpassed 5,000 points for the first time.
With files from The Canadian Press